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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Kluczbork — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kluczbork
Kluczbork
11/16/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra42%
×Draw25%
Kluczbork34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.56
Kluczbork
1.38

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 13% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.62
Kluczbork
1.57

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.18
Kluczbork
1.50

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Kluczbork+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Kluczbork →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
66%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Kluczbork
75%
Draw or Kluczbork
58%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
21%
Kluczbork wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
79%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
46%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
21%
Kluczbork 1+ goals
75%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
40%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
55%
Kluczbork (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Kluczbork away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.62 + Kluczbork defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kluczbork attack 1.57 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
42%
level
25%
Kluczbork scores more
34%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lechia Zielona Góra vs Kluczbork

Lechia Zielona Góra and Kluczbork drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zielona Góra.