Kluczbork 1–1 Lechia Zielona Góra: Result & Stats

Kluczbork

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lechia Zielona Góra

11/22/2025

III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 18Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Kluczbork44%

×Draw24%

Lechia Zielona Góra33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KluczborkExpected goals in this matchLechia Zielona Góra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.43

Kluczbork

1.68

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.43

Kluczbork creates 17% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

1.95

creates per match

1.50

1.36

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Kluczbork

1.95

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.50

allows per match

Kluczbork

1.36

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw

67%

Kluczbork or Lechia Zielona Góra

76%

Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra

56%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+

23%

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals

81%

Kluczbork 2+ goals

50%

Kluczbork 3+ goals

24%

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals

76%

Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals

42%

Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)

57%

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kluczbork scores more

44%

level

24%

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more

33%

Kluczbork at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff