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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
3/9/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra52%
×Draw23%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.77
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.15

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 54% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 68 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.62
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.13

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.18
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.93

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
75%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
77%
Draw or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
48%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
29%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
83%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
53%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
26%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
68%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
32%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
68%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.62 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.13 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
52%
level
23%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
25%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Lechia Zielona Góra 2–1 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

Lechia Zielona Góra beat Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zielona Góra.