Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Lechia Zielona Góra — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
11/8/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 16Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra38%
×Draw25%
Lechia Zielona Góra37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.44
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 103 away

creates per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.46
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.50

allows per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.34
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.41

finishing

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par
Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or draw
63%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or Lechia Zielona Góra
75%
Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra
62%

Winning margin

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
18%
Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
76%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
42%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
18%
Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
76%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
41%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
51%
Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 67 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.46 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
38%
level
25%
Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
37%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Karkonosze Jelenia Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Lechia Zielona Góra

Lechia Zielona Góra beat Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jelenia Góra.