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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Gać Oława — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
2 – 1
Gać Oława
Gać Oława
6/9/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 35Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra60%
×Draw21%
Gać Oława19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
2.09
Gać Oława
1.09

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 92% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 35 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.62
Gać Oława
1.00

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.18
Gać Oława
2.57

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Gać Oława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
81%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Gać Oława
79%
Draw or Gać Oława
40%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
37%
Gać Oława wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
88%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
62%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
34%
Gać Oława 1+ goals
66%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
30%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
76%
Gać Oława (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.62 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.09

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
60%
level
21%
Gać Oława scores more
19%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Lechia Zielona Góra 2–1 Gać Oława

Lechia Zielona Góra beat Gać Oława 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on June 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zielona Góra.