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Gać Oława vs Lechia Zielona Góra — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gać Oława
Gać Oława
FT
3 – 4
Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
11/7/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gać Oława28%
×Draw23%
Lechia Zielona Góra49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gać Oława
1.35
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.86

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 38% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 103 away

creates per match

Gać Oława
1.29
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.50

allows per match

Gać Oława
2.23
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.41

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par
Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw
51%
Gać Oława or Lechia Zielona Góra
77%
Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra
72%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+
12%
Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals
74%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
39%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
15%
Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
84%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
55%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)
36%
Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gać Oława scores more
28%
level
23%
Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
49%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gać Oława 3–4 Lechia Zielona Góra

Lechia Zielona Góra beat Gać Oława 4-3 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion w Gaciu in Gać.