Lechia Zielona Góra vs Chrobry Głogów II — III Liga - Group 3 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Lechia Zielona Góra48%
Chrobry Głogów II27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Lechia Zielona Góra creates 41% more chances
Season form · 102 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Lechia Zielona Góra ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches
Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.62 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54
Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Lechia Zielona Góra at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Ruch Chorzów
Polonia Bytom
Ślęza Wrocław
Pawłowice Śląskie
Zagłębie Lubin II
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Stal Brzeg
Górnik Zabrze IILechia Zielona Góra
Miedź Legnica II
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Kluczbork
Warta Gorzów
Piast Żmigród
Gać Oława
ROW Rybnik
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia NysaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Lechia Zielona Góra host Chrobry Głogów II on Wednesday, 17 August 2022 at 15:00. The match is part of the III Liga - Group 3 2020/2021 season.
III Liga - Group 3: Lechia Zielona Góra 2–1 Chrobry Głogów II
Lechia Zielona Góra beat Chrobry Głogów II 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 17, 2022.
The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zielona Góra.