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Chrobry Głogów II vs Lechia Zielona Góra — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
M. Jandziak 77' (OG)
M. Surozynski 58' (pen)
3/19/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion GOS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II27%
×Draw21%
Lechia Zielona Góra52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów II
1.44
Lechia Zielona Góra
2.08

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II
1.47
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.50

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II
2.65
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.41

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par
Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw
48%
Chrobry Głogów II or Lechia Zielona Góra
79%
Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra
73%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
12%
Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
76%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
42%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
18%
Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
87%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
61%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
34%
Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more
27%
level
21%
Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
52%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
M. SurozynskiPenalty
77'
M. JandziakOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów II vs Lechia Zielona Góra

Lechia Zielona Góra beat Chrobry Głogów II 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 19, 2023.

Goals: M. Surozynski (58' pen), M. Jandziak (77' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion GOS in Głogów.