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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Chrobry Głogów — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
Unknown 13'
M. Machaj 73' (pen)
1/25/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra41%
×Draw22%
Chrobry Głogów36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.81
Chrobry Głogów
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.80
Chrobry Głogów
1.55

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.80
Chrobry Głogów
1.82

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Chrobry Głogów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
64%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Chrobry Głogów
78%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
59%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
22%
Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
84%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
54%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
27%
Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
81%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
50%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
53%
Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.80 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.81

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.55 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
41%
level
22%
Chrobry Głogów scores more
36%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
73'
M. MachajPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Lechia Zielona Góra 1–1 Chrobry Głogów

Lechia Zielona Góra and Chrobry Głogów drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 25, 2023.

Goals: ? (13'), M. Machaj (73' pen).

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zielona Góra.