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Chrobry Głogów vs Lechia Zielona Góra — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
J. Gric 85'
1/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chrobry Głogów67%
×Draw20%
Lechia Zielona Góra13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów
2.05
Lechia Zielona Góra
0.78

Chrobry Głogów creates 163% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.94
Lechia Zielona Góra
0.50

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.06
Lechia Zielona Góra
2.17

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par
Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw
87%
Chrobry Głogów or Lechia Zielona Góra
80%
Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra
33%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
42%
Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
87%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
61%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
33%
Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
54%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
18%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
83%
Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.94 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.05

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 0.50 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more
67%
level
20%
Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
13%

Chrobry Głogów at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

85'
J. Gric
Chrobry
Lechia
Lukasz Becella
Manager: Lukasz Becella
S. Mordal
Manager: S. Mordal

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs Lechia Zielona Góra

Chrobry Głogów beat Lechia Zielona Góra 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2026.

Goals: J. Gric (85').