Lechia Gdansk 1–0 Piast Gliwice: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Piast Gliwice

L. Zwoliński 11'

9/18/2021

Ekstraklasa · Round 8Stadion Energa Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Lechia Gdansk41%

×Draw24%

Piast Gliwice35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchPiast Gliwice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.44

Lechia Gdansk

1.58

Piast Gliwice

1.44

Lechia Gdansk creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

1.59

creates per match

1.38

1.51

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.59

Piast Gliwice

1.38

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.51

Piast Gliwice

1.58

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.05on par

Piast Gliwice-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Piast Gliwice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

65%

Lechia Gdansk or Piast Gliwice

76%

Draw or Piast Gliwice

59%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

20%

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

79%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

47%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

21%

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

76%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

42%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

54%

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.51 · 24 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.59 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Piast Gliwice attack 1.38 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

41%

level

24%

Piast Gliwice scores more

35%

Lechia Gdansk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Konczkowski

Piast Gliwice · D

7.9

Match Events

11'

L. Zwoliński↳ J. Ceesay

41'

Conrado← J. Ceesay

72'

A. Pyrka← M. Chrapek

77'

J. Biegański← M. Gajos

77'

N. Stojiljković← Alberto Toril

77'

M. Ameyaw← D. Steczyk

78'

K. Sezonienko← Flávio Paixão

86'

Mateusz Żukowski

89'

B. Kopacz← M. Żukowski

90'

T. Makowski← L. Zwoliński

90+1'

T. Jodłowiec← D. Kądzior

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LechiaPiast

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots11

7Corners3

26Fouls5

Shots

12Total Shots11

6On Target1

5Off Target8

1Blocked2

7Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

476Total Passes443

385Accurate Passes345

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

26Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides2