Lechia Gdansk 2–2 Piast Gliwice: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Piast Gliwice

Flávio Paixão 90+5' (pen)

L. Zwoliński 87'

P. Sokołowski 48'

D. Steczyk 29'

4/17/2021

Ekstraklasa · Round 25Stadion Energa Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Lechia Gdansk39%

×Draw24%

Piast Gliwice37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchPiast Gliwice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.51

Lechia Gdansk

1.57

Piast Gliwice

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 34 away

1.64

creates per match

1.36

1.66

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.64

Piast Gliwice

1.36

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.66

Piast Gliwice

1.51

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.01on par

Piast Gliwice-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Piast Gliwice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

63%

Lechia Gdansk or Piast Gliwice

76%

Draw or Piast Gliwice

61%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

19%

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

79%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

46%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

21%

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

78%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

44%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

52%

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.66 · 27 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.51 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.64 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.57

Piast Gliwice attack 1.36 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

39%

level

24%

Piast Gliwice scores more

37%

Lechia Gdansk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. Konczkowski← B. Rymaniak

29'

D. Steczyk

46'

J. Kałuziński← J. Biegański

48'

P. Sokołowski↳ P. Lipski

57'

K. Vida← Gerard Badía

57'

T. Jodłowiec← M. Chrapek

64'

R. Pietrzak← Ž. Udovičić

64'

72'

73'

73'

78'

M. Musolitin← K. Fila

79'

M. Żyro← J. Świerczok

83'

Jarosław Kubicki

87'

L. Zwoliński↳ J. Ceesay

90+5'

Flávio PaixãoPenalty

Shots

Statistics

LechiaPiast

Overview

10Total Shots13

5Corners7

11Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots13

6On Target6

4Off Target7

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Ekstraklasa: Lechia Gdansk 2–2 Piast Gliwice

Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice drew 2-2 in Ekstraklasa on April 17, 2021.

Goals: D. Steczyk (29'), P. Sokołowski (48'), L. Zwoliński (87'), Flávio Paixão (90+5' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk in Gdańsk.

Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Ekstraklasa: Lechia Gdansk 2–2 Piast Gliwice