Lechia Gdansk 3–1 ŁKS Łódź: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

ŁKS Łódź

Flávio Paixão 50', 28'

L. Haraslín 24'

J. Sobocinski 9'

11/23/2019

Ekstraklasa · Round 16Stadion Energa Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Lechia Gdansk51%

×Draw23%

ŁKS Łódź26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchŁKS Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.21

Lechia Gdansk

1.80

ŁKS Łódź

1.21

Lechia Gdansk creates 49% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 5 away

1.63

creates per match

0.77

1.64

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.63

ŁKS Łódź

0.77

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.64

ŁKS Łódź

1.98

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.02on par

ŁKS Łódź-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

ŁKS Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

74%

Lechia Gdansk or ŁKS Łódź

77%

Draw or ŁKS Łódź

49%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

28%

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

83%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

54%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

27%

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

70%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

34%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

67%

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.64 · 28 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.98 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.63 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.80

ŁKS Łódź attack 0.77 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

51%

level

23%

ŁKS Łódź scores more

26%

Lechia Gdansk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

J. Sobocinski

14'

Łukasz Piątek

24'

L. Haraslín↳ S. Peszko

28'

Flávio Paixão↳ S. Peszko

39'

Michał Nalepa

45'

Jarosław Kubicki

46'

T. Makowski← K. Fila

50'

Flávio Paixão↳ J. Kubicki

65'

P. Pyrdoł← M. Trąbka

69'

P. Bryla← Dani Ramírez

71'

Adrian Klimczak

77'

Filip Mladenović

80'

Dragoljub Srnić

81'

K. Juraszek← M. Rozwandowicz

87'

A. Sobiech← R. Wolski

90+1'

J. Arak← S. Peszko

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LechiaŁKS

Overview

54%Possession46%

7Total Shots4

4Corners2

20Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots4

4On Target1

3Off Target3

Passing

54%Possession46%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

5Offsides1