ŁKS Łódź 0–0 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

ŁKS Łódź

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lechia Gdansk

7/19/2019

Ekstraklasa · Round 1Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ŁKS Łódź37%

×Draw24%

Lechia Gdansk39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁKS ŁódźExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.51

ŁKS Łódź

1.46

Lechia Gdansk

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 117 away

1.26

creates per match

1.25

1.77

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.26

Lechia Gdansk

1.25

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.77

Lechia Gdansk

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw

61%

ŁKS Łódź or Lechia Gdansk

76%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

63%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

17%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

77%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

43%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

18%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

78%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

44%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

49%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.26 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.25 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more

37%

level

24%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

39%

Lechia Gdansk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Z. Udovicic

46'

M. Maloča← A. Sobiech

46'

P. Lipski← M. Gajos

61'

J. Grzesik

64'

Pirulo← P. Bryla

65'

R. Kujawa← L. Sekulski

73'

A. Bogusz← J. Grzesik

76'

R. Wolski← L. Haraslín

80'

L. Piatek

ŁKS

Lechia

12

26

31

22

25

7

▼

Gajos

35

Lukasik

17

▼

Haraslín

6

Kubicki

19

Fila

90

▼

Sobiech

25

Kołba

21

▼

6

2

28

7

▼

11

29

23

3

22

▼

Sekulski

Manager: K. Moskal

64'▲Pirulo←▼P. Bryla

65'▲R. Kujawa←▼L. Sekulski

73'▲A. Bogusz←▼J. Grzesik

ŁKS Łódź substitutes

20Pirulo88Kujawa4Bogusz42Srnić33Budzyński16Ratajczyk18Pyrdoł24Juraszek19Trąbka

Manager: P. Stokowiec

46'▲M. Maloča←▼A. Sobiech

46'▲P. Lipski←▼M. Gajos

76'▲R. Wolski←▼L. Haraslín

Lechia Gdansk substitutes

23Maloča9Lipski27Wolski1Alomerovic28Paixão10Vikri36Makowski21Peszko4Chrzanowski