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Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa 2026

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
A. Cirkovic 90', 81'
R. Kapic 43'
3/6/2026EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 24Polsat Plus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Lechia Gdansk41%
×Draw24%
Jagiellonia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.66
Jagiellonia
1.51

Lechia Gdansk creates 10% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.59
Jagiellonia
1.49

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.53
Jagiellonia
1.73

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.02on par
Jagiellonia-0.10scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Jagiellonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
65%
Lechia Gdansk or Jagiellonia
76%
Draw or Jagiellonia
59%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
21%
Jagiellonia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
81%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
49%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
23%
Jagiellonia 1+ goals
78%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
44%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
54%
Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 21 matches

Jagiellonia away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.73 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.59 + Jagiellonia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66

Jagiellonia attack 1.49 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
41%
level
24%
Jagiellonia scores more
35%

Lechia Gdansk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
A. CirkovicLechia GdanskLechia Gdansk · M
8.6

Match Events

43'
R. Kapic↳ I. Zhelizko
49'
Apostolos Konstantopoulos
62'
M. Nahuel← N. Wojtuszek
62'
G. Montoia← B. Wdowik
64'
Matúš Vojtko
73'
S. Bazdar← A. Pululu
74'
T. Neugebauer← C. Mena
81'
A. Cirkovic↳ M. Dyachuk
88'
Y. Sylla← B. Mazurek
89'
B. Viunnyk← K. Sezonienko
90+2'
Youssuf Sylla
90+4'
B. Kludka← T. Wojtowicz
90'
A. Cirkovic↳ T. Bobcek

Possession

36%Lechia

Shots

10Lechia

Pass accuracy

47%Lechia

Statistics

LechiaJagiellonia
Overview
36%Possession64%
10Total Shots12
2.04Expected Goals (xG)1.08
2Corners9
10Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots12
7On Target2
2Off Target6
1Blocked4
7Inside Box8
3Outside Box4
Passing
36%Possession64%
300Total Passes516
217Accurate Passes417
72%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
-0.69Goals Prevented-0.69
Discipline
10Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia

Lechia Gdansk beat Jagiellonia 3-0 in Ekstraklasa on March 6, 2026.

Goals: R. Kapic (43'), A. Cirkovic (81', 90').

Jagiellonia controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Polsat Plus Arena in Gdansk.