Jagiellonia 3–2 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Jagiellonia

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lechia Gdansk

M. Skrzypczak 76' (pen)

Jesús Imaz 72'

Tomás Silva 13'

M. Khlan 59'

B. Viunnyk 16'

9/21/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 9Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Jagiellonia44%

×Draw23%

Lechia Gdansk33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JagielloniaExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.55

Jagiellonia

1.81

Lechia Gdansk

1.55

Jagiellonia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

1.86

creates per match

1.62

1.48

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Jagiellonia

1.86

Lechia Gdansk

1.62

allows per match

Jagiellonia

1.48

Lechia Gdansk

1.75

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Jagiellonia+0.18scores more

Lechia Gdansk-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Jagiellonia or draw

67%

Jagiellonia or Lechia Gdansk

77%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

56%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia wins by 2+

24%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Jagiellonia 1+ goals

84%

Jagiellonia 2+ goals

54%

Jagiellonia 3+ goals

27%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

79%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

46%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)

57%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.48 · 24 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia attack 1.86 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.62 + Jagiellonia defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jagiellonia scores more

44%

level

23%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

33%

Jagiellonia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

B. Viunnyk

Lechia Gdansk · F

7.7

Match Events

13'

Tomás Silva↳ João Moutinho

16'

B. Viunnyk↳ Conrado

46'

Elias Olsson

56'

Jesús Imaz← Tomás Silva

56'

M. Listkowski← J. Kubicki

59'

M. Khlan↳ A. Tsarenko

67'

P. Kováčik← K. Hansen

70'

Bogdan Viunnyk

72'

Jesús Imaz↳ T. Romanczuk

76'

M. SkrzypczakPenalty

77'

K. Sezonienko← B. Viunnyk

77'

T. Neugebauer← A. Tsarenko

82'

A. Rybak← L. Diaby-Fadiga

83'

A. Nguiamba← Miki Villar

84'

S. Buletsa← E. Olsson

85'

Michal Sáček

90+5'

João Moutinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JagielloniaLechia

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots13

3.37Expected Goals (xG)1.37

5Corners3

14Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots13

6On Target7

5Off Target3

7Blocked3

13Inside Box9

5Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

442Total Passes429

373Accurate Passes340

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Ekstraklasa: Jagiellonia 3–2 Lechia Gdansk

Jagiellonia beat Lechia Gdansk 3-2 in Ekstraklasa on September 21, 2024.

Goals: Tomás Silva (13'), B. Viunnyk (16'), M. Khlan (59'), Jesús Imaz (72'), M. Skrzypczak (76' pen).

Jagiellonia controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Białystok.

Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ekstraklasa: Jagiellonia 3–2 Lechia Gdansk