Lechia Gdansk 1–2 Cracovia Krakow: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Cracovia Krakow

B. Pllana 77'

B. Källman 44', 4' (pen)

11/3/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 14Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Lechia Gdansk42%

×Draw24%

Cracovia Krakow35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchCracovia Krakow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.50

Lechia Gdansk

1.67

Cracovia Krakow

1.50

Lechia Gdansk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

1.63

creates per match

1.36

1.64

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.63

Cracovia Krakow

1.36

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.64

Cracovia Krakow

1.72

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.02on par

Cracovia Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Cracovia Krakow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

65%

Lechia Gdansk or Cracovia Krakow

76%

Draw or Cracovia Krakow

58%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

21%

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

81%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

50%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

23%

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals

78%

Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals

44%

Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

55%

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.64 · 28 matches

Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.72 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.63 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.36 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

42%

level

24%

Cracovia Krakow scores more

35%

Lechia Gdansk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

B. Källman

Cracovia Krakow · F

8.6

Match Events

4'

B. KällmanPenalty

9'

J. Atanasov← V. Ghiță

17'

Conrado Buchanelli Holz

18'

Patryk Sokołowski

35'

Conrado Buchanelli Holz

35'

Conrado Buchanelli Holz

36'

Ivan Zhelizko

42'

M. Kałahur← T. Neugebauer

44'

B. Källman↳ A. Hasić

48'

Andrei Chindriş

63'

Patryk SokołowskiRed card cancelled

72'

B. Pllana← A. Chindriş

72'

K. Sezonienko← T. Wójtowicz

72'

M. Bochnak← F. Rózga

77'

B. Pllana↳ R. Kapič

81'

Amir Al Ammari← J. Atanasov

81'

B. Biedrzycki← A. Hasić

88'

A. Tsarenko← M. Khlan

89'

Henrich Ravas

90+7'

Bogdan Viunnyk

90+1'

Bujar Pllana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LechiaCracovia

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots17

0.77Expected Goals (xG)2.84

5Corners4

17Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots17

4On Target8

7Off Target7

2Blocked2

5Inside Box13

8Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

452Total Passes364

376Accurate Passes287

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls9

6Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow

Cracovia Krakow beat Lechia Gdansk 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on November 3, 2024.

Goals: B. Källman (4' pen, 44'), B. Pllana (77').

Lechia Gdansk controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 17.

The match was played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Gdańsk.

Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow