Cracovia Krakow 2–2 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Cracovia Krakow

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lechia Gdansk

F. Stojilkovic 90', 36'

I. Zhelizko 54'

T. Bobcek 9'

8/3/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 3Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Cracovia Krakow44%

×Draw24%

Lechia Gdansk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cracovia KrakowExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.31

Cracovia Krakow

1.61

Lechia Gdansk

1.31

Cracovia Krakow creates 23% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 22 away

1.36

creates per match

1.42

1.21

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Cracovia Krakow

1.36

Lechia Gdansk

1.42

allows per match

Cracovia Krakow

1.21

Lechia Gdansk

1.86

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Cracovia Krakow+0.07on par

Lechia Gdansk+0.03on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Krakow ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cracovia Krakow or draw

69%

Cracovia Krakow or Lechia Gdansk

76%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

56%

Winning margin

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+

23%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals

80%

Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals

48%

Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals

22%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

73%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

38%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)

59%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Krakow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.36 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.42 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cracovia Krakow scores more

44%

level

24%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

31%

Cracovia Krakow at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Stojilkovic

Cracovia Krakow · F

8.9

Match Events

6'

Gustav Henriksson

9'

T. Bobcek↳ K. Sezonienko

25'

Davíð Kristján Ólafsson

36'

F. Stojilkovic

41'

M. Praszelik← A. Hasic

43'

Maksym Diachuk

54'

I. Zhelizko

63'

B. Biedrzycki← A. Al Ammari

63'

F. Bzdyl← M. Minchev

63'

D. Kameri← D. Olafsson

64'

Otar Kakabadze

75'

T. Wojtowicz← K. Sezonienko

80'

T. Neugebauer← R. Kapic

81'

M. Perkovic← G. Henriksson

87'

Elias Olsson

90+2'

D. Kurminowski← T. Bobcek

90'

F. Stojilkovic↳ O. Kakabadze

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CracoviaLechia

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots12

2.55Expected Goals (xG)0.57

5Corners4

13Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots12

6On Target2

7Off Target6

7Blocked4

16Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

424Total Passes335

336Accurate Passes249

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2