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Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow — Ekstraklasa 2026

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
L. Zwoliński 90+5'
M. Żukowski 84'
M. Gajos 42'
8/14/2021EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 4Stadion Energa Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Lechia Gdansk42%
×Draw23%
Cracovia Krakow35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.68
Cracovia Krakow
1.51

Lechia Gdansk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.64
Cracovia Krakow
1.36

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.66
Cracovia Krakow
1.72

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.01on par
Cracovia Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Cracovia Krakow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
65%
Lechia Gdansk or Cracovia Krakow
77%
Draw or Cracovia Krakow
58%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
22%
Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
81%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
50%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
24%
Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals
78%
Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals
44%
Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
55%
Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.66 · 27 matches

Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.72 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.64 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.68

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.36 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
42%
level
23%
Cracovia Krakow scores more
35%

Lechia Gdansk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Patryk Zaucha
42'
M. Gajos
55'
K. Knap← P. Zaucha
55'
K. Pestka← D. Sadiković
57'
Maciej Gajos
68'
Rivaldinho← Luís Rocha
75'
Ilkay Durmus
77'
Sergiu Hanca
83'
M. Hebo← S. Hanca
83'
O. Kakabadze← S. Lusiusz
84'
M. Żukowski↳ İ. Durmuş
85'
K. Tobers← M. Gajos
85'
K. Sezonienko← J. Ceesay
86'
Kristers Tobers
90+2'
M. Terrazzino← J. Kubicki
90+2'
R. Pietrzak← Conrado
90+4'
L. Zwoliński← İ. Durmuş
90+5'
L. Zwoliński↳ R. Pietrzak

Possession

49%Lechia

Shots

9Lechia

Statistics

LechiaCracovia
Overview
49%Possession51%
9Total Shots6
3Corners3
20Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots6
5On Target2
4Off Target4
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
20Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow

Lechia Gdansk beat Cracovia Krakow 3-0 in Ekstraklasa on August 14, 2021.

Goals: M. Gajos (42'), M. Żukowski (84'), L. Zwoliński (90+5').

Cracovia Krakow controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk in Gdańsk.