Lech Poznan vs KuPS — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
Lech Poznan57%
KuPS19%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Lech Poznan creates 100% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Lech Poznan ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Lech Poznan at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches
KuPS away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Lech Poznan attack 2.13 + KuPS defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.64
KuPS attack 0.85 + Lech Poznan defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.82
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Lech Poznan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Lech Poznan substitutes
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Strasbourg
Raków Częstochowa
AEK Athens FC
Sparta Praha
Rayo Vallecano
Shakhtar Donetsk
FSV Mainz 05
AEK Larnaca
Lausanne
Crystal PalaceLech Poznan
Samsunspor
Celje
AZ Alkmaar
Fiorentina
HNK Rijeka
Jagiellonia
Omonia Nicosia
FC Noah
DritaKuPS
Shkendija
Zrinjski
Sigma Olomouc
Universitatea Craiova
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Dynamo Kyiv
Legia Warszawa
Slovan Bratislava
Breidablik
Shamrock Rovers
BK Hacken
Hamrun Spartans
Shelbourne
Aberdeen
Rapid ViennaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Lech Poznan host KuPS on Thursday, 26 February 2026 at 20:00. The match is part of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Lech Poznan vs KuPS
Lech Poznan beat KuPS 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on February 26, 2026.
Goals: P. Rodriguez (65').
Lech Poznan controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 9.
The match was played at Stadion Poznan in Poznan.