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KuPS vs Lech Poznan — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

KuPS
KuPS
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznanadvanced
T. Ismaheel 41'
A. Kozubal 9'
2/19/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 32Tammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KuPS40%
×Draw24%
Lech Poznan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS
1.54
Lech Poznan
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

creates per match

KuPS
1.71
Lech Poznan
1.56

allows per match

KuPS
1.36
Lech Poznan
1.38

finishing

KuPS+0.00on par
Lech Poznan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS ↓

Lech Poznan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

KuPS or draw
64%
KuPS or Lech Poznan
76%
Draw or Lech Poznan
60%

Winning margin

KuPS wins by 2+
19%
Lech Poznan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

KuPS 1+ goals
79%
KuPS 2+ goals
45%
KuPS 3+ goals
20%
Lech Poznan 1+ goals
77%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
43%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

KuPS (draw refunded)
52%
Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Lech Poznan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS attack 1.71 + Lech Poznan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lech Poznan attack 1.56 + KuPS defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KuPS scores more
40%
level
24%
Lech Poznan scores more
36%

KuPS at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. KreidlKuPSKuPS · G
10.0

Match Events

9'
A. Kozubal↳ M. Ishak
12'
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba
41'
T. Ismaheel↳ M. Ishak
46'
J. Moutinho← M. Gurgul
46'
G. Thordarson← A. Kozubal
62'
P. Walemark← F. Jagiello
62'
M. Skrzypczak← A. Milic
77'
Y. Agnero← M. Ishak
88'
Petteri Pennanen
88'
Joel Pereira

Possession

KuPS: 40Lech: 6040%KuPS

Shots

KuPS: 1Lech: 281KuPS

Pass accuracy

KuPS: 81Lech: 8748%KuPS

Statistics

KuPSLech
Overview
40%Possession60%
1Total Shots28
0.06Expected Goals (xG)3.23
1Corners8
9Fouls7
Shots
1Total Shots28
0On Target12
0Off Target9
1Blocked7
1Inside Box18
0Outside Box10
Passing
40%Possession60%
414Total Passes629
334Accurate Passes548
81%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
10Saves0
0.00Goals Prevented0.00
Discipline
9Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

UEFA Europa Conference League: KuPS 0–2 Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan beat KuPS 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on February 19, 2026.

Goals: A. Kozubal (9'), T. Ismaheel (41').

Lech Poznan controlled possession (60%) and registered 28 shots to 1.

The match was played at Tammelan Stadion in Tampere.