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Lech Poznan vs F91 Dudelange — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
8/18/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsStadion Poznań

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lech Poznan71%
×Draw18%
F91 Dudelange11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznan
2.28
F91 Dudelange
0.76

Lech Poznan creates 200% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lech Poznan
2.13
F91 Dudelange
0.71

allows per match

Lech Poznan
0.80
F91 Dudelange
2.43

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw
89%
Lech Poznan or F91 Dudelange
82%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
29%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+
48%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals
90%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
66%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
39%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
53%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
18%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
87%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 2.13 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.28

F91 Dudelange attack 0.71 + Lech Poznan defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Lech Poznan scores more
71%
level
18%
F91 Dudelange scores more
11%

Lech Poznan at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Lech Poznan 2–0 F91 Dudelange

Lech Poznan beat F91 Dudelange 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Poznań in Poznań.