F91 Dudelange 1–1 Lech Poznan: Result & Stats

F91 Dudelange

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lech Poznan

8/25/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsStade de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

F91 Dudelange33%

×Draw23%

Lech Poznan43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

F91 DudelangeExpected goals in this matchLech Poznan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.71

F91 Dudelange

1.48

Lech Poznan

1.71

Lech Poznan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

1.57

creates per match

1.56

1.86

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

F91 Dudelange

1.57

Lech Poznan

1.56

allows per match

F91 Dudelange

1.86

Lech Poznan

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Lech Poznan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Lech Poznan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw

57%

F91 Dudelange or Lech Poznan

77%

Draw or Lech Poznan

67%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

16%

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

77%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

43%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

19%

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

82%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

51%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

44%

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Lech Poznan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 1.57 + Lech Poznan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lech Poznan attack 1.56 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more

33%

level

23%

Lech Poznan scores more

43%

Lech Poznan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff