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Lech Poznań U18 vs Górnik Zabrze U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Lech Poznań U18
Lech Poznań U18
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Górnik Zabrze U18
Górnik Zabrze U18
4/24/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lech Poznań U1847%
×Draw23%
Górnik Zabrze U1829%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań U18
1.77
Górnik Zabrze U18
1.35

Lech Poznań U18 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań U18
2.14
Górnik Zabrze U18
1.54

allows per match

Lech Poznań U18
1.16
Górnik Zabrze U18
1.41

finishing

Lech Poznań U18+0.00on par
Górnik Zabrze U18+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań U18 ↓

Górnik Zabrze U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lech Poznań U18 or draw
71%
Lech Poznań U18 or Górnik Zabrze U18
77%
Draw or Górnik Zabrze U18
53%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań U18 wins by 2+
26%
Górnik Zabrze U18 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lech Poznań U18 1+ goals
83%
Lech Poznań U18 2+ goals
53%
Lech Poznań U18 3+ goals
26%
Górnik Zabrze U18 1+ goals
74%
Górnik Zabrze U18 2+ goals
39%
Górnik Zabrze U18 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań U18 (draw refunded)
62%
Górnik Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań U18 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Górnik Zabrze U18 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań U18 attack 2.14 + Górnik Zabrze U18 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Górnik Zabrze U18 attack 1.54 + Lech Poznań U18 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lech Poznań U18 scores more
47%
level
23%
Górnik Zabrze U18 scores more
29%

Lech Poznań U18 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lech Poznań U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Lech Poznań U18 1–0 Górnik Zabrze U18

Lech Poznań U18 beat Górnik Zabrze U18 1-0 in Central Youth League on April 24, 2022.