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Górnik Zabrze U18 vs Lech Poznań U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Górnik Zabrze U18
Górnik Zabrze U18
FT
2 – 3
Lech Poznań U18
Lech Poznań U18
10/17/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Górnik Zabrze U1843%
×Draw22%
Lech Poznań U1835%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze U18
1.85
Lech Poznań U18
1.65

Górnik Zabrze U18 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze U18
1.84
Lech Poznań U18
2.13

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze U18
1.16
Lech Poznań U18
1.87

finishing

Górnik Zabrze U18+0.00on par
Lech Poznań U18+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze U18 ↓

Lech Poznań U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze U18 or draw
65%
Górnik Zabrze U18 or Lech Poznań U18
78%
Draw or Lech Poznań U18
57%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze U18 wins by 2+
23%
Lech Poznań U18 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze U18 1+ goals
84%
Górnik Zabrze U18 2+ goals
55%
Górnik Zabrze U18 3+ goals
28%
Lech Poznań U18 1+ goals
81%
Lech Poznań U18 2+ goals
49%
Lech Poznań U18 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)
55%
Lech Poznań U18 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze U18 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

Lech Poznań U18 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze U18 attack 1.84 + Lech Poznań U18 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lech Poznań U18 attack 2.13 + Górnik Zabrze U18 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Górnik Zabrze U18 scores more
43%
level
22%
Lech Poznań U18 scores more
35%

Górnik Zabrze U18 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Zabrze U18 vs Lech Poznań U18

Lech Poznań U18 beat Górnik Zabrze U18 3-2 in Central Youth League on October 17, 2021.