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Lech Poznań II vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg — II Liga - East 2019

Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
8/5/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 3Stadion Amiki Wronki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lech Poznań II34%
×Draw24%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań II
1.43
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.60

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań II
1.35
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.71

allows per match

Lech Poznań II
1.49
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.50

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par
Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw
58%
Lech Poznań II or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
76%
Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
66%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
16%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
76%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
42%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
17%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
80%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
47%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
45%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 1.35 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.71 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more
34%
level
24%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
42%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lech Poznań II vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Kotwica Kołobrzeg beat Lech Poznań II 5-1 in II Liga - East on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Amiki Wronki in Wronki.