Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3–1 Lech Poznań II

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Lech Poznań II

3/4/2023

II Liga - East · Round 21Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg49%

×Draw26%

Lech Poznań II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotwica KołobrzegExpected goals in this matchLech Poznań II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.96

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.48

Lech Poznań II

0.96

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 54% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 86 away

1.41

creates per match

1.14

0.79

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.41

Lech Poznań II

1.14

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.79

Lech Poznań II

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Lech Poznań II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw

75%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Lech Poznań II

74%

Draw or Lech Poznań II

51%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

25%

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

77%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

43%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

19%

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals

62%

Lech Poznań II 2+ goals

25%

Lech Poznań II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

67%

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Lech Poznań II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lech Poznań II attack 1.14 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

49%

level

26%

Lech Poznań II scores more

25%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff