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Lech Poznań II vs Elana Toruń — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
J. Antczak 18'
E. Sledzinski 38' (OG)
O. Sikorski 29'
11/23/2025III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group II - 18Amica Wronki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lech Poznań II43%
×Draw24%
Elana Toruń33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań II
1.67
Elana Toruń
1.44

Lech Poznań II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 78 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań II
2.06
Elana Toruń
1.55

allows per match

Lech Poznań II
1.32
Elana Toruń
1.27

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par
Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Elana Toruń →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw
67%
Lech Poznań II or Elana Toruń
76%
Draw or Elana Toruń
57%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
22%
Elana Toruń wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
81%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
50%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
23%
Elana Toruń 1+ goals
76%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
42%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
56%
Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Elana Toruń away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 2.06 + Elana Toruń defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.67

Elana Toruń attack 1.55 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more
43%
level
24%
Elana Toruń scores more
33%

Lech Poznań II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lech Poznań II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
J. Antczak
29'
O. Sikorski
38'
E. SledzinskiOwn goal
Lech
Elana
G. Wojtkowiak
Manager: G. Wojtkowiak
R. Więckowski
Manager: R. Więckowski

III Liga - Group 2: Lech Poznań II 1–2 Elana Toruń

Elana Toruń beat Lech Poznań II 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 23, 2025.

Goals: J. Antczak (18'), O. Sikorski (29'), E. Sledzinski (38' o.g.).

The match was played at Amica Wronki Stadium in Wronki.