Lech Poznań II 2–2 Elana Toruń: Result & Stats

Lech Poznań II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Elana Toruń

F. Szymczak 41'

M. Skóraś 12'

B. Machaj 64'

W. Onsorge 34'

6/17/2020

II Liga - East · Round 26Stadion Amiki Wronki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lech Poznań II43%

×Draw26%

Elana Toruń31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech Poznań IIExpected goals in this matchElana Toruń

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.21

Lech Poznań II

1.47

Elana Toruń

1.21

Lech Poznań II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

1.35

creates per match

0.94

1.49

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Lech Poznań II

1.35

Elana Toruń

0.94

allows per match

Lech Poznań II

1.49

Elana Toruń

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Elana Toruń →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw

69%

Lech Poznań II or Elana Toruń

74%

Draw or Elana Toruń

57%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+

21%

Elana Toruń wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals

77%

Lech Poznań II 2+ goals

43%

Lech Poznań II 3+ goals

18%

Elana Toruń 1+ goals

70%

Elana Toruń 2+ goals

34%

Elana Toruń 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)

58%

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

Elana Toruń away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 1.35 + Elana Toruń defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

Elana Toruń attack 0.94 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more

43%

level

26%

Elana Toruń scores more

31%

Lech Poznań II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lech Poznań II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

16'

34'

41'

50'

60'

64'

B. Machaj

66'

D. Kościelniak← B. Machaj

71'

P. Tupaj← T. Cywka

71'

J. Świeciński← B. Boniecki

77'

O. Jacenko← T. Kaczmarek

79'

Kacper Jozwicki← L. Hrnčiar

81'

88'

S. Rak← M. Stryjewski

90+5'

A. Marciniak

90+1'

I. Ławrynowicz← J. Letniowski

Lech

Elana

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: R. Ulatowski

71'▲P. Tupaj←▼T. Cywka

77'▲O. Jacenko←▼T. Kaczmarek

90+1'▲I. Ławrynowicz←▼J. Letniowski

Lech Poznań II substitutes

TupajJacenkoŁawrynowicz

Manager: B. Pietrzak

66'▲D. Kościelniak←▼B. Machaj

71'▲J. Świeciński←▼B. Boniecki

79'▲Kacper Jozwicki←▼L. Hrnčiar

88'▲S. Rak←▼M. Stryjewski

Elana Toruń substitutes

KościelniakŚwiecińskiJozwickiRak