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Lech Poznań II vs Bytovia Bytów — II Liga - East 2019

Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
11/3/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 16Stadion Amiki Wronki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Lech Poznań II44%
×Draw24%
Bytovia Bytów32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań II
1.60
Bytovia Bytów
1.33

Lech Poznań II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań II
1.35
Bytovia Bytów
1.17

allows per match

Lech Poznań II
1.49
Bytovia Bytów
1.86

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw
68%
Lech Poznań II or Bytovia Bytów
76%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
56%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
22%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
80%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
47%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
22%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
74%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
38%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
58%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 1.35 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more
44%
level
24%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
32%

Lech Poznań II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lech Poznań II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lech Poznań II vs Bytovia Bytów

Lech Poznań II beat Bytovia Bytów 3-0 in II Liga - East on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Amiki Wronki in Wronki.