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Bytovia Bytów vs Lech Poznań II — II Liga - East 2019

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
7/19/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 33Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bytovia Bytów44%
×Draw25%
Lech Poznań II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.56
Lech Poznań II
1.25

Bytovia Bytów creates 25% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 86 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.57
Lech Poznań II
1.14

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.37
Lech Poznań II
1.55

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Lech Poznań II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
69%
Bytovia Bytów or Lech Poznań II
75%
Draw or Lech Poznań II
56%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
22%
Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
79%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
46%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
21%
Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
71%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
36%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
59%
Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Lech Poznań II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lech Poznań II attack 1.14 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
44%
level
25%
Lech Poznań II scores more
31%

Bytovia Bytów at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Bytovia Bytów 1–1 Lech Poznań II

Bytovia Bytów and Lech Poznań II drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on July 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Bytów.