Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lecce vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2018

Lecce
Lecce
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
5/7/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 34Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Lecce37%
×Draw27%
Hellas Verona36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce
1.27
Hellas Verona
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lecce
0.91
Hellas Verona
1.04

allows per match

Lecce
1.46
Hellas Verona
1.64

finishing

Lecce-0.31scores less
Hellas Verona-0.34scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lecce or draw
64%
Lecce or Hellas Verona
73%
Draw or Hellas Verona
63%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+
16%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals
72%
Lecce 2+ goals
36%
Lecce 3+ goals
14%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
71%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
36%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)
51%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.46 · 30 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 0.91 + Hellas Verona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hellas Verona attack 1.04 + Lecce defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lecce scores more
37%
level
27%
Hellas Verona scores more
36%

Lecce at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lecce vs Hellas Verona

Hellas Verona beat Lecce 1-0 in Serie A on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Lecce.