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Hellas Verona vs Lecce — Serie A 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lecce
Lecce
1/26/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 21Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Hellas Verona43%
×Draw30%
Lecce28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
1.20
Lecce
0.90

Hellas Verona creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 32 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
0.80
Lecce
0.74

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.05
Lecce
1.60

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less
Lecce-0.18scores less

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
72%
Hellas Verona or Lecce
70%
Draw or Lecce
57%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
19%
Lecce wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
70%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
34%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
12%
Lecce 1+ goals
59%
Lecce 2+ goals
23%
Lecce 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
61%
Lecce (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Lecce away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.60 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + Lecce defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Lecce attack 0.74 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
43%
level
30%
Lecce scores more
28%

Hellas Verona at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Hellas Verona 3–0 Lecce

Hellas Verona beat Lecce 3-0 in Serie A on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.