Lecce 2–1 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats | Serie B

Lecce

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hellas Verona

F. Lucioni 52'

A. La Mantia 34'

K. Laribi 90+4'

2/26/2019

Serie B · Round 26Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Lecce49%

×Draw25%

Hellas Verona26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LecceExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.11

Lecce

1.60

Hellas Verona

1.11

Lecce creates 44% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 20 away

1.96

creates per match

1.20

1.02

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Lecce

1.96

Hellas Verona

1.20

allows per match

Lecce

1.02

Hellas Verona

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lecce+0.00on par

Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lecce or draw

74%

Lecce or Hellas Verona

75%

Draw or Hellas Verona

51%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+

25%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals

80%

Lecce 2+ goals

47%

Lecce 3+ goals

22%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

67%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

30%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)

65%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 1.96 + Hellas Verona defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hellas Verona attack 1.20 + Lecce defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lecce scores more

49%

level

25%

Hellas Verona scores more

26%

Lecce at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Jacopo Petriccione

31'

Karim Laribi

34'

A. La Mantia↳ M. Mancosu

51'

L. Henderson← A. Almici

52'

F. Lucioni↳ J. Petriccione

67'

A. Arrigoni Marocco← Ž. Majer

72'

Ľ. Tupta← A. Di Gaudio

75'

A. Saraniti← A. La Mantia

83'

A. Traorè← Lee Seung-Woo

87'

Panagiotis Tachtsidis

88'

A. Marino← F. Falco

90'

Paweł Dawidowicz

90+4'

K. Laribi↳ A. Traorè

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LecceHellas

Overview

53%Possession47%

8Total Shots11

4Corners4

13Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots11

6On Target5

2Off Target6

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0