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Lecce vs Benevento — Serie B 2018

Lecce
Lecce
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Benevento
Benevento
M. Mancosu 62'
M. Coda 71'
1/19/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 20Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lecce46%
×Draw26%
Benevento29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce
1.50
Benevento
1.13

Lecce creates 33% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 79 away

creates per match

Lecce
1.96
Benevento
1.24

allows per match

Lecce
1.02
Benevento
1.05

finishing

Lecce+0.00on par
Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Benevento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lecce or draw
71%
Lecce or Benevento
74%
Draw or Benevento
54%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+
23%
Benevento wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals
78%
Lecce 2+ goals
44%
Lecce 3+ goals
19%
Benevento 1+ goals
68%
Benevento 2+ goals
31%
Benevento 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)
62%
Benevento (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 1.96 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.50

Benevento attack 1.24 + Lecce defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lecce scores more
46%
level
26%
Benevento scores more
29%

Lecce at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Massimo Volta
20'
Andrés Tello
53'
Lorenzo Del Pinto
62'
M. Mancosu↳ F. Falco
63'
Marco Mancosu
68'
C. Buonaiuto← L. Del Pinto
71'
M. Coda↳ R. Insigne
76'
T. Haye← P. Tachtsidis
80'
Riccardo Fiamozzi
81'
Asencio← M. Coda
84'
S. Palombi← A. La Mantia
88'
F. Ricci← R. Insigne
90+1'
S. Pettinari← M. Mancosu

Possession

48%Lecce

Shots

14Lecce

Statistics

LecceBenevento
Overview
48%Possession52%
14Total Shots11
6Corners3
16Fouls15
Shots
14Total Shots11
7On Target4
7Off Target7
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
16Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Serie B: Lecce 1–1 Benevento

Lecce and Benevento drew 1-1 in Serie B on January 19, 2019.

Goals: M. Mancosu (62'), M. Coda (71').

Benevento controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Via del Mare in Lecce.