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Benevento vs Lecce — Serie B 2018

Benevento
Benevento
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lecce
Lecce
M. Coda 87' (pen)
F. Ricci 81'
M. Volta 69'
R. Fiamozzi 60'
F. Falco 57'
M. Mancosu 30'
8/27/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 1Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Benevento42%
×Draw26%
Lecce33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benevento
1.45
Lecce
1.25

Benevento creates 16% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 57 away

creates per match

Benevento
1.72
Lecce
1.44

allows per match

Benevento
1.05
Lecce
1.18

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par
Lecce+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Benevento or draw
67%
Benevento or Lecce
74%
Draw or Lecce
58%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+
20%
Lecce wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals
77%
Benevento 2+ goals
42%
Benevento 3+ goals
18%
Lecce 1+ goals
71%
Lecce 2+ goals
36%
Lecce 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)
56%
Lecce (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Lecce away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Lecce defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.45

Lecce attack 1.44 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Benevento scores more
42%
level
26%
Lecce scores more
33%

Benevento at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
M. Mancosu↳ S. Pettinari
40'
Gianluca Di Chiara
41'
Riccardo Fiamozzi
57'
F. Falco↳ M. Calderoni
60'
R. Fiamozzi↳ F. Falco
61'
F. Ricci← R. Insigne
66'
Mauro Vigorito
69'
A. La Mantia← F. Falco
69'
M. Volta↳ N. Viola
70'
C. Buonaiuto← A. Tello
70'
Asencio← R. Improta
72'
Andrea La Mantia
74'
F. Cosenza← S. Pettinari
81'
F. Ricci
83'
A. Tabanelli← A. Arrigoni Marocco
86'
Biagio Meccariello
87'
M. CodaPenalty

Possession

55%Benevento

Shots

15Benevento

Statistics

BeneventoLecce
Overview
55%Possession45%
15Total Shots4
5Corners3
15Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots4
10On Target3
5Off Target1
Passing
55%Possession45%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
15Fouls12
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Benevento vs Lecce

Benevento and Lecce drew 3-3 in Serie B on August 27, 2018.

Goals: M. Mancosu (30'), F. Falco (57'), R. Fiamozzi (60'), M. Volta (69'), F. Ricci (81'), M. Coda (87' pen).

Benevento controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Benevento.