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Lecce U20 vs Empoli U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Lecce U20
Lecce U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Empoli U20
Empoli U20
5/3/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 36Campo Sportivo San Pietro in Lama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Lecce U2051%
×Draw24%
Empoli U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce U20
1.71
Empoli U20
1.14

Lecce U20 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lecce U20
1.42
Empoli U20
1.10

allows per match

Lecce U20
1.18
Empoli U20
2.00

finishing

Lecce U20+0.00on par
Empoli U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce U20 ↓

Empoli U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lecce U20 or draw
75%
Lecce U20 or Empoli U20
76%
Draw or Empoli U20
49%

Winning margin

Lecce U20 wins by 2+
27%
Empoli U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lecce U20 1+ goals
82%
Lecce U20 2+ goals
51%
Lecce U20 3+ goals
24%
Empoli U20 1+ goals
68%
Empoli U20 2+ goals
32%
Empoli U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lecce U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Empoli U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

Empoli U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce U20 attack 1.42 + Empoli U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Empoli U20 attack 1.10 + Lecce U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lecce U20 scores more
51%
level
24%
Empoli U20 scores more
25%

Lecce U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lecce U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lecce U20 vs Empoli U20

Lecce U20 and Empoli U20 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo San Pietro in Lama in San Pietro in Lama.