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Empoli U20 vs Lecce U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Empoli U20
Empoli U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lecce U20
Lecce U20
9/1/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 3Stadio Comunale di Petroio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Empoli U2038%
×Draw26%
Lecce U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli U20
1.35
Lecce U20
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Empoli U20
1.00
Lecce U20
1.47

allows per match

Empoli U20
1.11
Lecce U20
1.71

finishing

Empoli U20+0.00on par
Lecce U20+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U20 ↓

Lecce U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Empoli U20 or draw
64%
Empoli U20 or Lecce U20
74%
Draw or Lecce U20
62%

Winning margin

Empoli U20 wins by 2+
17%
Lecce U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Empoli U20 1+ goals
74%
Empoli U20 2+ goals
39%
Empoli U20 3+ goals
15%
Lecce U20 1+ goals
72%
Lecce U20 2+ goals
37%
Lecce U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Empoli U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Lecce U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Lecce U20 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U20 attack 1.00 + Lecce U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lecce U20 attack 1.47 + Empoli U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Empoli U20 scores more
38%
level
26%
Lecce U20 scores more
36%

Empoli U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Empoli U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Empoli U20 1–1 Lecce U20

Empoli U20 and Lecce U20 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Petroio in Vinci.