Lecce U20 1–0 Bologna U20: Result & Stats

Lecce U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bologna U20

1/18/2026

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 20Campo Sportivo San Pietro in Lama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Lecce U2039%

×Draw28%

Bologna U2033%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lecce U20Expected goals in this matchBologna U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.14

Lecce U20

1.26

Bologna U20

1.14

Lecce U20 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 40 away

1.42

creates per match

1.10

1.18

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Lecce U20

1.42

Bologna U20

1.10

allows per match

Lecce U20

1.18

Bologna U20

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lecce U20+0.00on par

Bologna U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce U20 ↓

Bologna U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lecce U20 or draw

67%

Lecce U20 or Bologna U20

72%

Draw or Bologna U20

61%

Winning margin

Lecce U20 wins by 2+

17%

Bologna U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lecce U20 1+ goals

72%

Lecce U20 2+ goals

36%

Lecce U20 3+ goals

13%

Bologna U20 1+ goals

68%

Bologna U20 2+ goals

32%

Bologna U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lecce U20 (draw refunded)

54%

Bologna U20 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

Bologna U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce U20 attack 1.42 + Bologna U20 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.26

Bologna U20 attack 1.10 + Lecce U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lecce U20 scores more

39%

level

28%

Bologna U20 scores more

33%

Lecce U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lecce U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff