Bologna U20 1–1 Lecce U20: Result & Stats

Bologna U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lecce U20

4/12/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 33Centro Sportivo Crespellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bologna U2041%

×Draw24%

Lecce U2035%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bologna U20Expected goals in this matchLecce U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.49

Bologna U20

1.64

Lecce U20

1.49

Bologna U20 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 38 away

1.56

creates per match

1.47

1.51

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Bologna U20

1.56

Lecce U20

1.47

allows per match

Bologna U20

1.51

Lecce U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bologna U20+0.00on par

Lecce U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U20 ↓

Lecce U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bologna U20 or draw

65%

Bologna U20 or Lecce U20

76%

Draw or Lecce U20

59%

Winning margin

Bologna U20 wins by 2+

21%

Lecce U20 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bologna U20 1+ goals

81%

Bologna U20 2+ goals

49%

Bologna U20 3+ goals

23%

Lecce U20 1+ goals

77%

Lecce U20 2+ goals

44%

Lecce U20 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Bologna U20 (draw refunded)

54%

Lecce U20 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.51 · 39 matches

Lecce U20 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U20 attack 1.56 + Lecce U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Lecce U20 attack 1.47 + Bologna U20 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bologna U20 scores more

41%

level

24%

Lecce U20 scores more

35%

Bologna U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bologna U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff