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Lebring vs Frohnleiten — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Lebring
Lebring
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Frohnleiten
Frohnleiten
10/26/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 13sanSirro Stadion Lebring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lebring75%
×Draw14%
Frohnleiten11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lebring
3.08
Frohnleiten
1.15

Lebring creates 168% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lebring
2.16
Frohnleiten
0.60

allows per match

Lebring
1.70
Frohnleiten
4.00

finishing

Lebring+0.00on par
Frohnleiten+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebring ↓

Frohnleiten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Lebring or draw
89%
Lebring or Frohnleiten
86%
Draw or Frohnleiten
25%

Winning margin

Lebring wins by 2+
55%
Frohnleiten wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lebring 1+ goals
95%
Lebring 2+ goals
81%
Lebring 3+ goals
58%
Frohnleiten 1+ goals
68%
Frohnleiten 2+ goals
32%
Frohnleiten 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lebring (draw refunded)
87%
Frohnleiten (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebring at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.70 · 89 matches

Frohnleiten away — creates 0.60, concedes 4.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebring attack 2.16 + Frohnleiten defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.08

Frohnleiten attack 0.60 + Lebring defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Lebring scores more
75%
level
14%
Frohnleiten scores more
11%

Lebring at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Lebring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lebring vs Frohnleiten

Lebring beat Frohnleiten 5-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at sanSirro Stadion Lebring in Lebring.