Frohnleiten 0–4 Lebring: Result & Stats

Frohnleiten

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Lebring

5/23/2025

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 28Franz Feldgrill-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frohnleiten24%

×Draw21%

Lebring55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrohnleitenExpected goals in this matchLebring

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.10

Frohnleiten

1.33

Lebring

2.10

Lebring creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 88 away

0.73

creates per match

1.74

2.47

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Frohnleiten

0.73

Lebring

1.74

allows per match

Frohnleiten

2.47

Lebring

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frohnleiten+0.00on par

Lebring+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frohnleiten ↓

Lebring →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Frohnleiten or draw

45%

Frohnleiten or Lebring

79%

Draw or Lebring

76%

Winning margin

Frohnleiten wins by 2+

10%

Lebring wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Frohnleiten 1+ goals

74%

Frohnleiten 2+ goals

38%

Frohnleiten 3+ goals

15%

Lebring 1+ goals

88%

Lebring 2+ goals

62%

Lebring 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Frohnleiten (draw refunded)

30%

Lebring (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frohnleiten at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Lebring away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.93 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frohnleiten attack 0.73 + Lebring defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lebring attack 1.74 + Frohnleiten defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Frohnleiten scores more

24%

level

21%

Lebring scores more

55%

Lebring at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lebring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff