Lebrijana 2–1 Córdoba II: Result & Stats

Lebrijana

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Córdoba II

9/15/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 4Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lebrijana40%

×Draw27%

Córdoba II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LebrijanaExpected goals in this matchCórdoba II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.15

Lebrijana

1.31

Córdoba II

1.15

Lebrijana creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 110 away

1.29

creates per match

1.13

1.18

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Lebrijana

1.29

Córdoba II

1.13

allows per match

Lebrijana

1.18

Córdoba II

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lebrijana+0.00on par

Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebrijana ↓

Córdoba II →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lebrijana or draw

67%

Lebrijana or Córdoba II

73%

Draw or Córdoba II

60%

Winning margin

Lebrijana wins by 2+

18%

Córdoba II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lebrijana 1+ goals

73%

Lebrijana 2+ goals

38%

Lebrijana 3+ goals

14%

Córdoba II 1+ goals

68%

Córdoba II 2+ goals

32%

Córdoba II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lebrijana (draw refunded)

55%

Córdoba II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lebrijana at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lebrijana attack 1.29 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Lebrijana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lebrijana scores more

40%

level

27%

Córdoba II scores more

33%

Lebrijana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lebrijana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff