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Córdoba II vs Lebrijana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Córdoba II
Córdoba II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lebrijana
Lebrijana
2/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 23Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Córdoba II58%
×Draw24%
Lebrijana18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Córdoba II
1.67
Lebrijana
0.82

Córdoba II creates 104% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 30 away

creates per match

Córdoba II
1.60
Lebrijana
0.60

allows per match

Córdoba II
1.05
Lebrijana
1.73

finishing

Córdoba II+0.00on par
Lebrijana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Córdoba II ↓

Lebrijana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Córdoba II or draw
82%
Córdoba II or Lebrijana
76%
Draw or Lebrijana
42%

Winning margin

Córdoba II wins by 2+
32%
Lebrijana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Córdoba II 1+ goals
81%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
50%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
23%
Lebrijana 1+ goals
56%
Lebrijana 2+ goals
20%
Lebrijana 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Córdoba II (draw refunded)
76%
Lebrijana (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Córdoba II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Lebrijana away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Córdoba II attack 1.60 + Lebrijana defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.67

Lebrijana attack 0.60 + Córdoba II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Córdoba II scores more
58%
level
24%
Lebrijana scores more
18%

Córdoba II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Córdoba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Córdoba II vs Lebrijana

Córdoba II beat Lebrijana 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba.