Lebanon 0–5 Australia: Result & Stats | League #30

Lebanon

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Australia

C. Goodwin 81', 48'

J. Iredale 68'

B. Z. Jradi 47' (OG)

K. Yengi 2'

3/26/2024

League #30 · 2nd Round - Group I - 4GIO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lebanon10%

×Draw21%

Australia70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LebanonExpected goals in this matchAustralia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.54

1.88

Lebanon

0.54

Australia

1.88

Australia creates 248% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.33

creates per match

1.75

2.00

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Lebanon

0.33

Australia

1.75

allows per match

Lebanon

2.00

Australia

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lebanon+0.00on par

Australia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lebanon ↓

Australia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–117%

0–216%

0–310%

0–45%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lebanon or draw

30%

Lebanon or Australia

79%

Draw or Australia

90%

Winning margin

Lebanon wins by 2+

2%

Australia wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Lebanon 1+ goals

42%

Lebanon 2+ goals

10%

Lebanon 3+ goals

2%

Australia 1+ goals

85%

Australia 2+ goals

56%

Australia 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Lebanon (draw refunded)

12%

Australia (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lebanon at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Australia away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lebanon attack 0.33 + Australia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Australia attack 1.75 + Lebanon defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Lebanon scores more

10%

level

21%

Australia scores more

70%

Australia at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Australia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

C. Goodwin

Australia · M

9.7

Match Events

2'

K. Yengi

9'

Mitchell Duke

46'

Daniel Lajud

46'

D. Lajud Martinez← H. Chaitou

47'

B. Z. JradiOwn goal

48'

C. Goodwin↳ A. Hrustic

51'

Ali Tneich

55'

P. Yazbek← A. Hrustic

58'

K. Darwiche← H. Maatouk

59'

G. Bitar← Sisi

66'

Khalil Khamis

66'

J. Nisbet← C. Metcalfe

66'

J. Iredale← K. Yengi

68'

J. Iredale↳ P. Yazbek

79'

H. Srour← O. Bugiel

81'

C. Goodwin↳ M. Duke

82'

T. Deng← G. Jones

82'

S. Silvera← M. Duke

86'

J. Khoury← B. Z. Jradi

90+5'

Samuel Silvera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LebanonAustralia

Overview

40%Possession60%

7Total Shots15

1Corners3

11Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots15

1On Target6

4Off Target5

2Blocked4

3Inside Box11

4Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

357Total Passes530

280Accurate Passes452

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3