Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Australia vs Lebanon — League #30 2026

Australia
Australia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lebanon
Lebanon
K. Rowles 54'
K. Baccus 5'
3/21/2024League #30League #30 · 2nd Round - Group I - 3Western Sydney Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Australia73%
×Draw19%
Lebanon8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Australia
1.92
Lebanon
0.46

Australia creates 317% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Australia
2.50
Lebanon
0.67

allows per match

Australia
0.25
Lebanon
1.33

finishing

Australia+0.00on par
Lebanon+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Australia ↓

Lebanon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Australia or draw
92%
Australia or Lebanon
81%
Draw or Lebanon
27%

Winning margin

Australia wins by 2+
46%
Lebanon wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Australia 1+ goals
85%
Australia 2+ goals
57%
Australia 3+ goals
30%
Lebanon 1+ goals
37%
Lebanon 2+ goals
8%
Lebanon 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Australia (draw refunded)
90%
Lebanon (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Australia at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Lebanon away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Australia attack 2.50 + Lebanon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Lebanon attack 0.67 + Australia defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Australia scores more
73%
level
19%
Lebanon scores more
8%

Australia at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Australia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
K. RowlesAustraliaAustralia · D
8.2

Match Events

5'
K. Baccus
16'
J. Bos← R. McGree
42'
A. Hrustic←
46'
M. Haidar← H. Srour
54'
K. Rowles↳ C. Burgess
61'
Nathaniel Atkinson
66'
M. Duke← K. Yengi
66'
D. Lajud Martinez← H. Maatouk
67'
J. Iredale← A. Taggart
78'
Keanu Baccus
78'
N. Matar← Sisi
78'
K. Darwiche← O. Bugiel
85'
G. Bitar← B. Z. Jradi

Possession

64%Australia

Shots

10Australia

Pass accuracy

53%Australia

Statistics

AustraliaLebanon
Overview
64%Possession36%
10Total Shots6
9Corners1
14Fouls4
Shots
10Total Shots6
6On Target3
2Off Target3
2Blocked0
5Inside Box4
5Outside Box2
Passing
64%Possession36%
629Total Passes353
557Accurate Passes275
89%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls4
2Yellow Cards0
5Offsides0

Match Recap: Australia vs Lebanon

Australia beat Lebanon 2-0 in League #30 on March 21, 2024.

Goals: K. Baccus (5'), K. Rowles (54').

Australia controlled possession (64%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Western Sydney Stadium in Parramatta.