Le Mans 0–2 Paris Saint Germain: Result & Stats

Le Mans

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Paris Saint Germain

B. Barcola 71'

D. Doué 25'

2/4/2025

Coupe de France · Round of 16Stade Marie-Marvingt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Le Mans14%

×Draw15%

Paris Saint Germain71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Le MansExpected goals in this matchParis Saint Germain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.91

Le Mans

1.25

Paris Saint Germain

2.91

Paris Saint Germain creates 133% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 22 away

2.00

creates per match

3.82

2.00

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Le Mans

2.00

Paris Saint Germain

3.82

allows per match

Le Mans

2.00

Paris Saint Germain

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Le Mans+0.00on par

Paris Saint Germain+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Mans ↓

Paris Saint Germain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Le Mans or draw

29%

Le Mans or Paris Saint Germain

85%

Draw or Paris Saint Germain

86%

Winning margin

Le Mans wins by 2+

5%

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Le Mans 1+ goals

71%

Le Mans 2+ goals

36%

Le Mans 3+ goals

13%

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals

94%

Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals

78%

Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Le Mans (draw refunded)

17%

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Mans at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 3.82, concedes 0.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Mans attack 2.00 + Paris Saint Germain defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Paris Saint Germain attack 3.82 + Le Mans defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Le Mans scores more

14%

level

15%

Paris Saint Germain scores more

71%

Paris Saint Germain at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. Kvaratskhelia

Paris Saint Germain · F

8.2

Match Events

5'

Gabin Bernardeau

25'

D. Doué↳ Gonçalo Ramos

32'

Alexandre Lauray

45+2'

Senny Mayulu

46'

Nuno Mendes← L. Hernández

46'

A. Hakimi← Y. Zague

64'

A. Oudjani← G. Bernardeau

64'

J. Matumona← A. Ribelin

64'

Z. Amir← A. Rabillard

68'

Vitinha← S. Mayulu

68'

B. Barcola← D. Doué

71'

B. Barcola↳ Nuno Mendes

74'

A. Ouchen← A. Lauray

81'

B. Oggad← M. Rossignol

81'

P. Kimpembe← W. Pacho

84'

Presnel Kimpembe

87'

Gonçalo Ramos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeParis

Overview

29%Possession71%

9Total Shots12

2Corners5

8Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots12

2On Target3

3Off Target8

4Blocked1

4Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

29%Possession71%

332Total Passes838

256Accurate Passes779

77%Pass Accuracy93%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

6Offsides0