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Le Mans vs Paris Saint Germain — Coupe de la Ligue 2018

Le Mans
Le Mans
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germainadvanced
H. Manzala 53'
Á. Di María 47'
K. Mbappé 41'
E. Choupo-Moting 40'
Pablo Sarabia 21'
12/18/2019Coupe de la LigueCoupe de la Ligue · Round of 16MMArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Le Mans12%
×Draw16%
Paris Saint Germain72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Le Mans
1.00
Paris Saint Germain
2.67

Paris Saint Germain creates 167% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Le Mans
1.33
Paris Saint Germain
3.00

allows per match

Le Mans
2.33
Paris Saint Germain
0.67

finishing

Le Mans+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Mans ↓

Paris Saint Germain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Le Mans or draw
28%
Le Mans or Paris Saint Germain
84%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain
88%

Winning margin

Le Mans wins by 2+
4%
Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Le Mans 1+ goals
63%
Le Mans 2+ goals
26%
Le Mans 3+ goals
8%
Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
93%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
74%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Le Mans (draw refunded)
14%
Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Mans at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Mans attack 1.33 + Paris Saint Germain defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Paris Saint Germain attack 3.00 + Le Mans defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Le Mans scores more
12%
level
16%
Paris Saint Germain scores more
72%

Paris Saint Germain at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Á. Di MaríaParis Saint GermainParis Saint Germain · M
8.5

Match Events

10'
Marco Verratti
16'
Yann Boé-Kane
21'
Pablo Sarabia↳ Á. Di María
40'
E. Choupo-Moting↳ K. Mbappé
41'
K. Mbappé↳ M. Verratti
42'
H. Manzala← H. Hafidi
47'
Á. Di María↳ N. Kouassi
53'
H. Manzala↳ Y. Maziz
56'
A. Confais← Y. Maziz
68'
L. Paredes← Marquinhos
68'
M. Icardi← K. Mbappé
70'
Nianzou Kouassi
70'
B. Moussiti-Oko← V. Créhin
77'
Ander Herrera← M. Verratti
78'
Leandro Paredes

Possession

34%Le

Shots

6Le

Pass accuracy

46%Le

Statistics

LeParis
Overview
34%Possession66%
6Total Shots16
3Corners8
13Fouls11
Shots
6Total Shots16
2On Target6
1Off Target7
3Blocked3
4Inside Box12
2Outside Box4
Passing
34%Possession66%
381Total Passes743
291Accurate Passes664
76%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
4Offsides5

Match Recap: Le Mans vs Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain beat Le Mans 4-1 in Coupe de la Ligue on December 18, 2019.

Goals: Pablo Sarabia (21'), E. Choupo-Moting (40'), K. Mbappé (41'), Á. Di María (47'), H. Manzala (53').

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (66%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at MMArena in Le Mans.