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Le Mans vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2025

Le Mans
Le Mans
CANC
00:00
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
4/3/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 31MMArena (Le Mans)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Le Mans43%
×Draw28%
Clermont Foot29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Le Mans
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.01

Le Mans creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 19 away

creates per match

Le Mans
1.09
Clermont Foot
1.11

allows per match

Le Mans
0.91
Clermont Foot
1.47

finishing

Le Mans+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Le Mans ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Le Mans or draw
71%
Le Mans or Clermont Foot
72%
Draw or Clermont Foot
57%

Winning margin

Le Mans wins by 2+
19%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Le Mans 1+ goals
72%
Le Mans 2+ goals
37%
Le Mans 3+ goals
14%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
64%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
27%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Le Mans (draw refunded)
59%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Le Mans at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Le Mans attack 1.09 + Clermont Foot defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

Clermont Foot attack 1.11 + Le Mans defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Le Mans scores more
43%
level
28%
Clermont Foot scores more
29%

Le Mans at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Le Mans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Le Mans vs Clermont Foot — Match Preview

Le Mans face Clermont Foot on April 3, 2020 in this Ligue 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Le Mans host Clermont Foot at MMArena (Le Mans).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.