Clermont Foot 0–1 Le Mans: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Clermont Foot

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Le Mans

G. Gope-Fenepej 4'

11/2/2019

Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade Gabriel Montpied (Clermont-Ferrand)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Clermont Foot39%

×Draw27%

Le Mans34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchLe Mans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.21

Clermont Foot

1.31

Le Mans

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 36 away

1.10

creates per match

1.42

1.00

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.10

Le Mans

1.42

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.00

Le Mans

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Le Mans+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Le Mans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

66%

Clermont Foot or Le Mans

73%

Draw or Le Mans

61%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

18%

Le Mans wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

73%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

38%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

14%

Le Mans 1+ goals

70%

Le Mans 2+ goals

34%

Le Mans 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

53%

Le Mans (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Le Mans away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.10 + Le Mans defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Le Mans attack 1.42 + Clermont Foot defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

39%

level

27%

Le Mans scores more

34%

Clermont Foot at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

V. N'Simba

Clermont Foot · D

7.8

Match Events

4'

28'

33'

38'

49'

58'

63'

67'

A. N'Diaye← Mario González

67'

V. Créhin← R. Boissier

68'

Yann Boé-Kane

78'

L. Rajot← J. Berthomier

82'

Florent Ogier

87'

B. Teixeira← C. Gomis

90'

H. Hafidi← G. Gope-Fenepej

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontLe

Overview

69%Possession31%

14Total Shots8

7Corners1

14Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots8

3On Target2

7Off Target5

4Blocked1

8Inside Box3

6Outside Box5

Passing

69%Possession31%

610Total Passes281

528Accurate Passes185

87%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

7Offsides0